This email will be used to sign into all New York sites. He is a highly sought-after lecturer and public speaker on topics ranging from modern polling techniques, candidate training, campaign management and strategy, issue advocacy, and public relations. What happened next is history, but the headlines and recognition for Cahaly and Trafalgar Group across America and around the globe had just begun: a single firm had the most accurate polls in Florida, Pennsylvania, Michigan, North Carolina, Ohio, Colorado, and Georgiathe up-and-coming Trafalgar Group, headed by Robert Cahaly. And so we're going to do a bigger survey," Cahaly said, adding that with traditional methods, pollsters are forced to rely on enthusiastic partisans, or sometimes those who are simply bored, to answer their questions. Our turnout model just didnt have it there. Live Now All. He was previously a political consultant for Republican Party candidates. The only firm to a difference of under 2% while most firms were over 3% and 538 was at over 4%. "One of the things that you can count on to increase voter participation anywhere there's an election is how much attention they pay to it.". The Republicans just did not strategize well. A Florida bill takes a ridiculous GOP argument to the extreme, aiming to eliminate the Democratic Party for its ancient ties to white supremacy. And two, they still believe the first election was fraudulent and, if enough of them turn out and more attention is paid, that they can prove it by showing how red Georgia is.". ", Midterms: "We are a political lifetime away from midterms. So that was not a normal thing. On the gubernatorial ticket, Trafalgar predicted Heidi Ganahl would run incumbent Democrat Jared Polis to single digits. Cahalys portfolio spans three decades and 22 states with success at all levels of politics and public relations. But they didn't believe him in 2016 either. I said long questionnaires, however, do not represent average voters. Please enter valid email address to continue. Our own polls show that that's wildly wrong. A polling thing: In New Mexico, there was a Trafalgar Group poll that shockingly put Weatherman Ronchetti 1 point ahead of Gov. Join half a million readers enjoying Newsweek's free newsletters. - At least 12 dead after winter storm slams South, Midwest, The Saturday Six: Dental device controversy, scientist's bug find and more, Indonesia fuel depot fire kills 18; more than a dozen missing, 3 children killed, 2 others wounded at Texas home, Man charged for alleged involvement in 2 transformer explosions, Nikki Haley slams potential GOP contenders, and Trump and George W. Bush, Duo of 81-year-old women plan to see the world in 80 days, Tom Sizemore, actor known for "Saving Private Ryan" and "Heat," dies at 61, Alex Murdaugh trial: What to know about the double murder case, Pollster Robert Cahaly on "The Takeout" 12/17/2021, Meet the "anti-woke" Republican presidential candidate: Vivek Ramaswamy, Jared Polis on Trump, 2024 and how to handle classified documents, Top Republican calls FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried a "world-class sociopath", House Financial Services chairman says U.S. won't default this year, Jordan and House Judiciary prepare to probe matters involving two presidents. Evers won by three. Trafalgar Group's Robert Cahaly joined Liz Collin by phone to discuss the results of a recent poll. Watch the live stream of Fox News and full episodes. And we should have just anticipated they would do it again. The Trafalgar Group. You havent heard much about Trafalgar, but they were right on the money on this Rush Limbaugh 11/9/16. In addition to his questions surrounding the Democratic-leaning voting bloc and the determination driving both parties to urge high voter turnout, Cahaly said he will also keep an eye on a less emotional factor next week: the weather. Okay, but the Times final polls of Pennsylvania and Arizona and Georgia were almost exactly correct. If that happens, Vice President-elect Kamala Harris would break any ties. This obviously is not an exact science, all this stuff. "I also think the Republicans in many ways feel a little bit backed into a corner, and are therefore also motivated," Cahaly continued. The voters within that group lean Democratic and participated in both the 2018 and 2020 elections, he said. "This move has created a new type of voter that will be even harder to poll or even estimate. Trafalgar had the lowest average difference between projected election margin and the actual margin. August 12, 2023. luckbox content is for informational and educational purposes only. You can't just say, 'Well, this is the model on this, the way you have to do it.' They have stuff to do.". Do you know any young people who answer the phone and take 30 questions? "One of the pieces of advice I always give candidates is like, 'Well, should I do a poll?' And in a lot of these races where the GOP nominated fairly divisive, extreme figures, Democrats won some Republican votes.Theres no question about that. And as were able to get the list of exactly who voted those will be available in almost every state within the next few months I plan on spending these next few months looking at exactly who turned out, seeing how far our model was off, and making adjustments and fixing it. There were people- I had friends that were actually working for him who didn't put a sticker on their car because of where they parked at night. Trafalgar Group senior strategist Robert Cahaly breaks down his prediction for Republican turnout in the upcoming midterm elections on 'Unfiltered with Dan Bongino. It Sure Doesnt Seem Like Havana Syndrome Is Russias Fault. During a press conference, the mayor said his words about not believing in the separation of church and state were just his own beliefs. All rights reserved. "In this runoff, I think you have the Democrats feeling very confident, and I think they're excited," he said. Whoops! On Sunday, November 6th, 2016, two days before the presidential election, Robert Cahaly, Senior Strategist and Pollster of Atlanta-based Trafalgar Group, bet the future of his company on his teams unorthodox polling methodologywhen national reporters asked if he would stand by his polling results showing a clear 300+ Trump victory, effectively rejecting the industry consensus of a large significant Hillary Clinton electoral win, he didnt back down, hedge his bets, or equivocate. You're getting super-billionaire donors to dump millions and millions of dollars in negative ads against me to prop up your election because you gave them a fake poll. [1][7] Cahaly is of Syrian heritage and an Eastern Orthodox Christian. In 2018, Cahalys Trafalgar proved 2016 wasnt a one-off by demonstrating that its unique methodology is beyond what so many in the industry are doing. The Washington Examiner says, Cahalys Trafalgar Group has earned a reputation for accuracy the last three cycle., While most polls proved just as inaccurate as they were in 2016, one polling agency stood out among the pack: The Trafalgar Group. Daily Wire, Nov 5 2020 ,Title: Pro-Trump Pollster Called Crazy Turns Out To Be Most Accurate Of All. I mean, you know, when Trump was sitting there in November of 2019, nobody knew what COVID was that radically affected his election. Updated on: December 24, 2021 / 7:34 AM It is irrelevant when the other side is doing the work they do. And so forth.The thing is if you look at the last three weeks, nobody was right. Seemed to me that it freaked people out, in part because media reported on it w/o much skepticism. While Cahaly said some Republican voters initially told Trafalgar Group pollsters they were unmotivated to participate in the runoffs following the presidential election, those individuals are coming back into the fold as the surprise of the election wears off. The more people feel the poll was anonymous, the more honest they're going to be. You mentioned last time you want to be right more than anything else.Yeah. One Trafalgar Group poll showed New York's Democratic Attorney General Letitia Jamesa key political opponent of Trumpdown by just a single point to Republican candidate Michael Henry. 2023 FOX News Network, LLC. The more people feel the poll was anonymous, the more honest they're going to be. Bennet won by double digits. And it was just simply outdone by a great get out the vote. In 2016, conservative pollster Robert Cahaly and his newly created firm, the Trafalgar Group, became overnight sensations as one of the only polling firms to predict Donald Trump's victory over Hillary Clinton in the 2016 presidential election. Most polls conducted since the general election found the two Georgia Senate races close as fundraising skyrocketed for the final quarter of 2020. Reduce eye strain and focus on the content that matters. ", Join half a million readers enjoying Newsweek's free newsletters. Before you place any more political bets, check out pollster Robert Cahaly of Trafalgar Groups explanation of why he beat his polling peers in the past two election cycles, how he nailed the Electoral College outcome in 2016 and why the polls are wrong again in 2020. In 2017, The Trafalgar Group and Cahaly were alone in correctly calling the following major races: Georgia US House 6 special election, Alabama US Senate special election primary and runoff as well as the the Virginia Governors race. Theres the methodology, which I will not change, because if that were the problem, then how would we have been right all these years? These are two accepted concepts. "I'm a Republican, but if you think I'm going to make a poll look positive for somebody because of what party I'm in, you don't know me very well," Cahaly told CBS News chief Washington correspondent Major Garrett on this week's episode of "The Takeout" podcast. He has gained media attention in 2016 for predicting correctly that President Donald Trump would win in the states of Michigan and Pennsylvania. So we asked the question to ROBERT CAHALY of the Trafalgar Group, one of the great contrarians in the polling industry, and a rising star who has outperformed virtually every other pollster in recent elections. Cahaly gave his this. "I anticipate that this turnout will be significant for that reason.". Cahaly said. But it seemed like turnout was good generally, right? Terms of Service apply. But some of his projections heading into Tuesday night were downright baffling. Yes, it was mostly lesser-known outfits in the last two or three weeks.And thats not necessarily our fault. And I'm like, 'Would it change what you do? Do Not Sell or Share My Personal Information. Those polls are more vulnerable to whats called the social-desirability bias. tweeted Matt McDermott, a Democratic strategist, on election night. And yes, they voted twice. 2024 Polls Show DeSantis Cant Easily Knock Out Trump. In 2022, the companys polls once again showed a picture of Republican strength, helping create a widespread impression that a red wave was about to crest. The firm often asks participants to talk about how their neighbors feel about a certain issue or candidate, instead of themselves. And so people are frustrated. When asked why the polling industry is in such bad shape, Robert gave SSG some real gold: 6 REASONS WHY THE POLLS ARE WRONG w/ ROBERT CAHALY. "I think that will lead to significant voter participation. But outlets like CBS News, Marist, the New York TimesSiena PollNo, this year, they didnt poll in the last few weeks. North Carolina, Missouri, and even the race for governor in Nevada those were all relatively close. Were working up a statement, what were going to put out. Trafalgar Group founder Robert Cahaly told Newsweek during an interview last week that Democrats are excited to participate following President-elect Joe Biden's win in November. Get browser notifications for breaking news, live events, and exclusive reporting. IA, Trafalgar new poll: Herschel Walker leads Warnock. When Will Biden Announce His Re-Election Bid? I think everybody will underestimate them, including us.
